The Future of Global Oil Production

The Future of Global Oil Production WORLD’S OIL PRODUCTION: HISTORICAL REFERENCE AND PROJECTIONS Background The level of the oil production is influenced by a wide variety of factors. Following a basic principle, the demand is the reference element against which production (i.e. supply) is always analyzed. Yet, apart from demand there are many other factors that influence, either directly or indirectly, the oil production. To quote only a few of such factors with direct influence one might mention: the fluctuating oil price, the socio-economic framework, the political stability, the fiscal and regulatory regime(s), the technological breakthroughs etc. On the axis listing the rather indirect factors, but also having a huge influence on the level of the world’s oil production, are other factors: sustainable investment environment, availability of financial resources, evolution of the transportation sector, environmental concerns etc. For sure, not even a small portion of all factors with influence on the level of production has been exhausted. In order to deal with such broad variety of factors (each having potentially substantial influence on the oil production and some of them having an intrinsic fluctuating nature) private companies, organizations (e.g. Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), international bodies (e.g. International Energy Agency) or national monitoring bodies (e.g. US Energy Information Administration) put forward scenarios which are ultimately used for creating mid-term/ long-term strategies and/ or for making investment decisions in the dynamic arena of the oil and gas activity. Oil demand to 2035 As in most of the current scenario planning methods, in the 2014 IEA’s World Energy Outlook (â€Å"WEO-2014†) several scenarios are envisaged (i.e. New Policies Scenario[1] which is the central scenario to WEO-2014, the Current Policies Scenario[2] and the 450 Scenario[3]). During the 13 November 2014 Conference held in Vienna for promoting the release of the WEO-2014, IEA’s Chief Economist Fatih Birol mentioned that one of the key questions analysts are trying to answer is whether oil production will keep up in the future with the oil demand. The reason for analyzing this aspect in great detail lies in the fact that the energy demand is estimated to grow with a staggering 37% till 2040 (compared against the year of 2012)[4]. Within the energy mix, oil demand is supposed to rise from 90.1 mb/d in 2013[5] to 102.8 mb/d in 2035[6] and even to 103.9 mb/d till 2040 in the New Policies Scenario. In the Current Policies Scenario the oil demand increase is even more drastic: in 2040 the world demand will reach 116 mb/d! Both scenarios mentioned do not envisage a peak in the oil demand by 2040 which means that the mankind will actually need more oil to cover its needs in the years to follow after 2040. Only the 450 Scenario envisages a peak in the oil de mand already by around 2020[7] as the efficiency on the CO2 emissions is supposed to exhibit its effects by then; following said period the oil demand will decline and revert to the 1990s levels. Illustrating once more that the mankind’s faith lies actually in our hands, more specifically, in the policies to be implemented (or not) by 2040, it is worthwhile highlighting the deviations in energy demand (so not just oil demand) from the reference scenario (i.e. New Policies Scenario): in the Current Policies Scenario, the total energy demand will be higher with 10% (i.e. +1.746 Mtoe) than in the New Policies Scenario, while the 450 Scenario envisages a lower energy demand by 15% (i.e. -2.663 Mtoe) compared to the New Policies Scenario. In the energy mix envisaged in 2040, each of the three fossil fuels (i.e. oil, gas, coal) and the renewable sources play an equal role (i.e. each getting approx. a quarter), but with oil retaining its position as the largest single fuel in the global energy mix[8]. Similarly to IEA, OPEC’s 2014 World Oil Outlook (â€Å"WOO†) makes its own forecast, but the figures are slightly higher as it is envisaged in the reference case a steeper increase in the oil demand which is forecasted to reach 108 mb/ in 2035 and even 111 mb/d in 2040[9] (i.e. slightly lower – with 0.5 mb/d than forecasted in the WOO 2013). The figures provided by IEA WEO 2014, in terms of oil demand for the reference case are similar to the ones provided by OPEC’s WOO 2014 for the lower economic growth scenario which refers to a 102 mb/d oil demand in 2035 and 104.2 mb/d in 2040[10]. The higher economic growth scenario envisaged by WOO 2014 exhibits an oil demand of 112 mb/d in 2035 and almost 116 mb/d in 2040[11]. The main driving forces behind such steep demand increase are stemming from the developing economies (particularly China, India and Middle East[12]). In OECD countries, it is envisaged that the energy efficiency policies will come into play with a more significant impact than so far and, consequently, OECD oil demand will drop by almost 25% from 41 mb/d in 2013 to 31 mb/d in 2040 (OECD oil demand peaked already in 2005) with the US seeing the largest fall in absolute terms. Will oil production peak? After looking at the estimations of what oil quantities the world will need in the following decades, can it be stated that the production will keep up with such high demand? The good news is that the remaining technically recoverable resources of oil are sufficient to meet anticipated demand in all three scenarios[13]. The 2013 registered oil production was of 89.4 mb/d[14], according to IEA. As a significant milestone, all scenarios highlight the period around the 2020s when the North American unconventional production peaks (and subsequently it starts to decline). Yet, in the New Policies Scenario, the oil production growth will be supported mainly by the Middle East countries (i.e. OPEC’s quota raises from 36.8 mb/d in 2013 to 49.5 mb/d in 2040 when it will account for 49% of the total output) as well as by Canada and Brazil. Only the 450 Secenario, similar to the demand related projection, shows a production that will peak around 2020s when it will reach 93.4 mb/d[15]. By 2040, the 450 Scenario reflects an oil production declined up to 71.9 mb/d. OPEC’s WOO 2014[16] projects an oil production growth up to 108 mb/d by 2035 and even 111 mb/d by 2040. In its projection released on 9 September 2014, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts, in its reference case, an overall oil output increase reaching 99.1 mb/d[17] by 2040 (rather close to IEA’s 2014 New Policies Scenario). Conclusion All scenarios show that on a mid-term perspective oil supply and demand will both grow. All scenarios (except the 450 Scenario) show that on a long term oil supply and demand will grow. The 450 Scenario envisages a peak demand and supply around the 2020s. Some elements present high uncertainty (e.g. US tight oil, Brazil deepwater development, Canadian oil sands, Middle East stability etc) and their evolution over the next decades will be of utmost interest. Another heavy weight factor for the interdependency with the oil production supply and demand will be the evolution of the oil price. And another element which may produce positive surprises which will be worth following are the technological breakthroughs (if any). Therefore, the world’s business community will have to closely monitor all these elements and will have to factor them into the strategic business decisions to be made in the following years! [1] The New Policies Scenario takes into consideration the policies and implementing measures that have been adopted as of mid 2014 as well as the implementation of the policy proposals (even if they are yet to be formally approved). [2] The Current Policies Scenario takes into consideration only the policies enacted until mid 2014. [3] The 450 Scenario is not purely a scenario, but it rather sets a final target (i.e. limiting the temperature increase over the next years to only 2 degrees Celsius) and works out backwards to identify the decisions/ actions that have to be accomplished in order to meet this threshold. [4] World Energy Outlook 2014, page 55 [5] Idem, page 98 [6] Ibidem [7] Idem, page 97 [8] IEA WEO 2014, page 96 [9] OPEC World Oil Outlook 2014, page 72, available at http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/WOO_2014.pdf [10] Idem, page174 [11] Ibidem. [12] See Figure 3.2 in the IAE’s WEO 2014, page 100 [13] IEA, WEO 2014, page 110 [14] Idem, page 115. The OPEC WOO 2014 refers (under page 79) to an oil production of 90 mb/d. In both cases, the â€Å"oil production† includes, apart from the crude oil production, the NGL as well as the unconventional oil production. [15] IEA, WEO 2014, page 115. [16] WOO 2014, page 82 [17] See â€Å"Table A5. World crude and lease condensate production by region and country† available at http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/ieo_tables.cfm

Petition: Rhetoric and Adams Essay

Gordin Adams’ argument is effective because of his persuasive appeal to logos, pathos, and ethos. In the beginning of his petition, he starts with his general occupation and present education. Adams ends it with a clear purpose of why he entered college. From this part, he shows credibility and character. Adams adds in much more ethos to defend his claim by first representing himself as a person; the high achievements he has earned during both colleges, SCC and ASU; and the education he gained. With this amount of intelligence and awards, he grows his credibility and sets a character presented to the committee. Adams presents himself as confident, hardworking student by saying, â€Å" [he] will enter the ASU College of Law to study Indian and criminal law during the Fall of 1992 if this petition is approved.† He has a game plan and is determined to serve his tribe. Further more into the petition, he backs up his claims with job occupations and projects he has done in th e past, stating that he â€Å"used geometry and algebra commonly in the design of many welded structures.† Adams then shows he has much credibility and knows what he wants. For every question that he had about the requirements of college algebra, he uses supportive evidence to back up his argument, where he used algebra. Adams uses a large amount of ethos during the whole petition to keep the committee from loosing he’s attention. As for logos, he points out his case and claims he doesn’t need algebraic skills for his future profession. He piles up all of his achievements, awards, outstanding grades, and honors; shows information about himself. With the questions Adams thought about, he asked professors of the college to give the committee evidence, quotes, and responses. He shows them he doesn’t need algebra by backing it up with real supportive evidence of other college staffs of ASU. He â€Å"contacted Dr. _____ of the ASU Mathematics Department†, â€Å"consulted Mr. Jim ____ of the Justice College†, and then he contacted his friends who were practici ng attorneys. They responded â€Å"no† to all of Adams’ questions. From this evidence and responses, he’s able to support his argument. As for pathos, he made â€Å"a vow of moral commitment to seek out and confront injustice.† Adams sends out a emotion of loyalty, impressive, and proud. Adams also said he is the first in his family to enter college. He presents himself to the committee as outstanding individual, making them  feel impressed towards Adams. The petition says if he has it approved he will â€Å"vigorously prosecute [their] right to sovereignty before the Congress of the United States.† Adams shows he is determined and has a purpose of his life. In the ending of the petition, Adams makes the committee feel sympathy and guilt because the examples of the problems the Native Americans are experiencing and wishes to resolve them. By promising the committee that he will be faithful and assured, he shows them that ASU will have no changes of accreditatio n and wills still continue to achieve. It sends out an emotion of faith and trustworthy towards Adams from the committee. Thus, by using hard evidence, emotion appeal, and credibility, he is effective in appealing to logos, pathos, and ethos.

Compare and Contrast (Wap/Wml) and Java 2 Platform Micro Edition (J2Me)

(WAP/WML) and Java 2 platform Micro Edition (J2ME) architectures CSS 422 Compare and Contrast (WAP/WML) and Java 2 platform Micro Edition (J2ME) As technology is changing there are new ways to develop programs for the many types of mobile networked devices. Wireless application protocol (WAP) and Wireless markup language (WML), which work together to design and architect an application to be sent to wireless mobile devices for users to download and enjoy. The Java 2 platform micro edition (J2ME) is a more extensive platform that is used in designing wireless applications. Wireless Application Protocol The Wireless Application Protocol is a technical standard for accessing information over a wireless mobile network. This type of browser is used for mobile devices like cell phones. You can access such things as sports, public media information, political information, news, music, etc. (Mahmoud, 2002) WAP is based exceedingly on the web programming model, which allows the user/developer to design and architect a program inside a browser to enter information. The web pages are written in the Hyper Text Markup Language (HTTP). (Mackenzie & Sharkey, 2001) Comparing A developer can design a low-level program that allows a user to access simple programs such as games. A developer can also use the web programming model to make programs that are highly functional by having a program within a program. This is called Dynamic HTML (DHTML). DHTML allows another web page to change without having to wait for the server. Contrasting There are downfalls to WAP and the reasons are; just as the DHTML allows another web page to load without having to wait for the server. On the other hand, the standard of HTML is, once a web page is loaded from the server, it will not change until another request comes from the server. This takes more time away from the user, since they must wait for request from the server. Wireless Markup Language Wireless markup language is based on XML, which is a set of rules for encoding documents into computer-readable language. Previously called Handheld Devices Markup Language (HDML), is a markup language which is intended for devices that implement the Wireless application protocol qualifications, such as, the mobile devices. Comparing The comparison between the WML and the WAP are important, because the two work together as; the Wireless Markup Language is intended for devices that function with the wireless application protocol. Like HTML, WML provides data input, navigational support, and hyperlinks. Contrasting There is a big difference between WML and J2ME, because the Java 2 platform provides much more memory than WML. This may be a concern for Wireless Markup Language, because there could be a point that J2ME will contain more memory, and WML will be something of the past. This has happened with other stages in technology, such as Java going from HTTP to HTML. Java 2 Platform Micro Edition (J2ME) The Java 2 platform micro edition (J2ME) is an embedded system that operates on smartphones, PDA’s, and user appliances. The J2ME devices implement a profile called Mobile Information Device Profile. MIDP allows a user to write downloadable applications and services for network connected devices such as the devices listed above. When MIDP is combined with Connected Limited Device Configuration (CLDC) they create the special run-time environment that is on the latest mobile devices. (Oracle, 2011) Comparing Combining MIDP and CLDC they provide the core functions needed for mobile applications. If these two devices did not work together the services they provide would not be available to our mobile gadgets. Contrasting Unlike WAP/WML, J2ME uses a K Virtual Machine, which is a specialized virtual machine to interpret support for devices with limited retention. The virtual support along with the CLDC/MIDP makes the implementation superior to the WAP’s/WML’s. Conclusion As technology grows and changes so do the ways developers use their programming language to design new wireless applications for wireless mobile devices. It is exciting to see how far technology has come in the way wireless devices are made to use the simple and extensive wireless applications. References: Mackenzie, D. , Sharkey, K. (2001, 20 August). InformIT: Building the user interface with web forms. Retrieved August 7, 2011 from http://www. informit. com/articles/article. aspx? p=131102 Mahmoud, Q. (2002, February). Oracle: J2ME, MIDP, and WAP complementary technologies. Retrieved August 6, 2011 from http://developers. sun. com/mobility/midp/articles/midpwap/ Oracle. (2011). Mobile information device profile: (MIDP). Retrieved August 6, 2011 from http://www. oracle. com/technetwork/java/index-jsp-138820. html

The Diverse Portrayals of People of Color in Cinema